Trying to Teach Old Dogs New Tricks

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's open market committee concluded its two-day meeting to set U.S. monetary policy. In a vote that divided the Board of Governors, appointed by the president and confirmed by the U.S. Senate in an open public process, and the presidents of the regional bank board presidents, chosen by boards dominated by banks within their region, Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the FOMC, announced the FOMC decided to hold steady to its current Fed funds rate. The Fed funds rate is an overnight interest charge made between banks loaning reserves to each other. If it is higher, the cost of making loans goes up, and that reduces liquidity for the business and consumer sectors. Lower liquidity means less borrowing for business investment or consumer purchases like homes and cars. In turn, that means slower demand, and translates into slower growth for jobs.

Last December, after a long period of keeping the Fed funds rate near zero, the FOMC voted unanimously to raise the Fed funds rate by one-quarter to one-half points. It was anticipated that would be the first in a series of increases of similar small amounts. But, over the course of this year, the economy has run rather flat. Employment in the areas sensitive to interest rates like construction and manufacturing, after employment gains during 2015, ran flat. Durable goods manufacturing, which had been declining during 2015, continued to fall. In 2015, the unemployment rate fell from 5.7% in January to 5.0% in October. It has since remained stuck at about that level.

Ideally, when the Federal Reserve gets things right, the economy runs neither too hot or too cold. Eight months of flat unemployment rates and tepid GDP growth would suggest the Fed has clearly succeeded in finding a landing that, so far hasn’t meant crashing the economy. At least, on Wednesday, the evidence from modest GDP growth, flat unemployment and very low inflation convinced the six Board of Governors and the president of the New York Federal Reserve Regional Bank to hold steady; a tribute to Janet Yellen’s leadership to stay focused on the data and the real economy.

But, the other three regional bank presidents, Esther George of Kansas City, Loretta Mester of Cleveland and Eric Rosengren of Boston, all voted to raise the rate now. Another point of context is understanding the global economy is growing slower. The other major world economies, Europe, Japan and China, are struggling with slow growth. Their central banks are operating with either zero or negative interest rates. America’s modest growth looks very good next to their anemic performance. So this is making the dollar very strong. And that helps to explain the weakness of U.S. manufacturing because a strong dollar hurts U.S. exports. So even modest increases in U.S. interest rates are big by global standards and could further disadvantage U.S. manufacturing.

A second context is that the excess level of savings, globally, is chasing down projections of interest rate levels. Currently, the consensus at the Fed is that in the midterm, the Fed funds rate is likely to be around 1.9% at the end of 2018, and in the long run the normal rate is expected to be about 2.9%. On the eve of the Great Recession, the Fed funds rate was 5.25%. Compared to 2.9%, a raise to between one-half and three-quarters is not small. It isn’t like when the "normal" rate was above 5%.

The current tension in the FOMC between the Board of Governors and the regional bank presidents continues the controversy whether banks have too much say. Independence of the Fed from the political process is important. But, so too is Fed independence from the banks they need to regulate and oversee to make sure we have economic stability. The vote from Wall Street was positive. The stock market gains show a consensus the Fed is doing it right.

Better Pay and Benefits

Worker Wins Update: Groundbreaking Contract Victories in Multiple Industries

When working people come together and win the contracts, it proves that our raising wages agenda drives economic stability. Working people across the country are creating better lives for themselves and turning those workplace victories into political power. These latest worker wins show what the power of collective voice can achieve.

Here are some highlights:

Staff and Students Win After Lockout Ends: Teachers and students are back in class after the Long Island University Faculty Federation won an agreement that ended a 12-day faculty lockout. The AFT and its state affiliate, New York State United Teachers, fully supported the faculty efforts helping to secure a contract that runs through May 31, 2017.

Detroit Teachers Win Wage Increases in New Contract: The Detroit Federation of Teachers ratified a new contract with the Detroit Public Schools Community District. The agreement includes wage increases and the formation of a committee to address health safety needs of teachers. The agreement now goes before the Detroit Financial Review Commission for final approval.

Two Florida Newspapers Vote to Join The NewsGuild CWA: Newsroom staff of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune and The Ledger of Lakeland have voted to unionize. More than 70 employees will benefit from the new contracts that are being negotiated with GateHouse Media, which owns both papers.

Masters, Mates & Pilots Members Unanimously Approve First Contract with New York Water Taxi: In a unanimous vote, captains and deckhands won a hard-fought campaign in support of collective bargaining and the principles of discussion and agreement in solving conflict. This new contract is viewed as an important step in making New York Harbor a 100% unionized waterfront once again.

Magna Seating Workers in Tennessee Overwhelmingly Vote for Union: By a nearly unanimous vote, workers at Magna Seating International, a new facility in Spring Hill, Tenn., voted to join the UAW. The 230 workers build seats for the new Cadillac XT5 and GMC Acadia in a state of the art 122,500 square foot facility near the Spring Hill General Motors Manufacturing plant.

Workers at Nation’s Only Lipton Tea Factory Vote to Join UFCW: Nearly 200 workers at the Lipton plant in southeast Virginia voted to unionize with United Food and Commercial Workers Union (UFCW) Local 400. Workers expressed optimism that this will improve conditions at the plant that has operated for more than 60 years and produces most of the tea sold in North America.

Workers at Boulder Station Vote to Unionize Through NLRB Secret-Ballot Election: Workers at Boulder Station Hotel & Casino voted by a landslide of 67% to be represented by the Culinary Workers Union Local 226 and the Bartenders Union Local 165 through a National Labor Relations Board secret-ballot election. More than 570 Boulder Station workers will be represented by the unions, which are affiliates of UNITE HERE. It is the first of Station Casinos’ properties in Nevada to unionize.

More NBC Universal Workers Vote to Unionize with the Writers Guild of America, East: Writer-producers at Peacock Productions, the "reality"/nonfiction television production subsidiary of Comcast/NBCUniversal, voted decisively in favor of unionizing with the Writers Guild of America, East (WGAE). The vote comes after a nearly four-year battle that began in October 2012, when writer-producers at Peacock Productions filed for a union election with the NLRB.

In the Shadow of Obama's Refugee Summit and U.N., Global Labor Movement and Immigrant Leaders Speak Out

As world leaders met in the U.N. General Assembly and the Obama administration's Leaders’ Summit to make a new commitment to address mass movements of refugees and migrants, labor and immigrant leaders gathered by the United Nations to call on governments to promote dignity and decent work for those on the move.

Global unions for building and woodworkers, education and public services called for government action to protect workers’ rights and include workers’ voices, instead of cozying up to corporate interests and pursing privatization schemes in response to displacement.

Speakers rejected the anti-immigrant, xenophobic sentiments that are on the rise in Europe and the United States, stoked by opportunistic politicians, and called for solidarity and collective action to achieve higher standards for refugees, migrants and all working people

Immigrant rights leaders from DRUM, Alianza Americas and the Global Coalition on Migration focused on the importance of organizing and mobilizing to force action in addressing the root causes of forced migration, including disastrous trade and economic policies, a lack of decent work, climate change, instability and conflict. They called for an end to the criminalization and detention of refugee and immigrant families and to expand protections for those who might not qualify as “refugees,” but still fear to return home.

Pointing to the Trump Tower across the street, AFL-CIO Executive Vice President Tefere Gebre stressed the need to move away from the hate and fear of men like Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and create a path forward that preserves America’s rich tradition of welcoming refugees and migrants. That path forward, he made clear, is not continuing the shameful practice of detaining and rejecting asylum seekers from Central America, but to focus U.S policy on creating good jobs, protecting workers and communities, and ending support for corporate-driven trade agreements, both in the region and throughout the world.

While world leader continue to put forward vague political declarations and pay lip service to responding justly to the greatest refugee crisis since World War II, civil society and trade unions presented an alternative vision to protect rights and promote sustainable development and an inclusive future. Let’s hope they listen.

For more on the AFL-CIO’s global refugee and migration advocacy in the United Nations, read Gebre’s address to world leaders this week.